Back to Guides
Commercial8 min read

Commercial Solar ROI: What the Numbers Actually Look Like

How to evaluate a commercial solar proposal — payback period, IRR, depreciation, and the questions your CFO will ask.

Making the Business Case for Commercial Solar

Commercial solar decisions are financial decisions. Here's the framework your team needs.

Key Metrics to Evaluate

  • Simple Payback Period: Total cost ÷ annual savings. Most commercial systems pay back in 4–7 years.
  • IRR (Internal Rate of Return): Typically 10–20% for well-sited commercial systems — compare to your cost of capital.
  • NPV (Net Present Value): The total value of future savings in today's dollars. Should be strongly positive.

Depreciation: The Hidden Accelerator

Commercial solar qualifies for MACRS 5-year accelerated depreciation, plus a 60% bonus depreciation in year one (2026 rate). This dramatically improves after-tax returns and is often the deciding factor for profitable businesses.

Financing Options

  • Cash purchase: Best ROI, full ownership of incentives.
  • Commercial loan: Preserve capital, still own the system and incentives.
  • Power Purchase Agreement (PPA): $0 down, pay per kWh — no ownership, but immediate savings.
  • Operating lease: Off-balance-sheet, predictable payments.

Questions to Ask Your Installer

  • Can you provide a 25-year pro forma with sensitivity analysis?
  • What production guarantee do you offer?
  • Who handles O&M (operations and maintenance)?
  • What happens if production falls short of projections?